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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."